The Fourth Turning: Why We’re Living Through the Crisis Cycle — and How to Prepare for What Comes Next

What Is “The Fourth Turning”?

In 1997, historians William Strauss and Neil Howe published The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy — a book that argued that history moves not in a straight line, but in cycles of roughly 80 to 100 years, divided into four “turnings.”

Each turning represents a generational mood — a societal “season” that eventually gives way to the next.

The four turnings:

1. The High (Spring):
   Institutions are strong, individualism is weak, and society feels unified.
   Example: Post-WWII America (1946–1964).
2. The Awakening (Summer):
   People rebel against conformity and seek spiritual renewal.
   Example: The 1960s counterculture revolution.
3. The Unraveling (Fall):
   Institutions weaken, trust fades, and divisions deepen.
   Example: The 1980s–2000s culture wars.
4. The Crisis — The Fourth Turning (Winter):
   Institutions collapse, nations fracture, and society faces upheaval.
   Old systems die; new ones are born.

And that’s where we are now.

Welcome to the Fourth Turning

The last great crisis was 1929–1946 — the Great Depression and World War II.

Roughly 80 years later, the next turning began around 2008, marked by the global financial collapse.

Since then, the pattern fits perfectly:

• Institutional collapse and corruption
• Widening cultural and class divides
• Global pandemics, wars, and economic shocks
• Technological revolutions reshaping every system
• A general feeling that “the world we knew is ending”

This isn’t random chaos — it’s a cyclical reset in motion.

What We Can Learn

1. Crisis brings renewal.
   The Fourth Turning is painful, but it’s also regenerative. Every collapse clears the ground for something stronger.
2. Our actions define the next century.
   The generations alive today will determine the institutions, economies, and values of the next 80–100 years.
3. The storm is necessary.
   These moments forge the leaders and builders of the new era.

How to Prepare for the Fourth Turning

Preparation isn’t about panic — it’s about resilience and sovereignty.

1. Strengthen Local Ties

Find your tribe. Build real community — neighbors, families, small businesses.
Strong networks are your safety net when systems fail.

2. Become Financially Sovereign

Traditional currencies and markets are fragile.
Diversify into real assets — land, Bitcoin, precious metals, productive skills.

3. Learn Practical Skills

Grow food. Repair things. Create value with your hands and mind.
Resilience comes from competence, not consumption.

4. Stay Mentally & Spiritually Grounded

In times of chaos, calm is power.
Meditate, pray, read philosophy — stay centered and lead others through uncertainty.

5. Embrace Innovation

Every crisis births new technology, culture, and systems.
AI, decentralized networks, off-grid energy — these are the building blocks of the new era.

Every Winter Ends

After every Fourth Turning comes a new “High” — a time of unity, rebuilding, and optimism.
What’s born from this crisis depends on what we do now.

“History is seasonal, and winter is always followed by spring.”
— William Strauss & Neil Howe

We are the generation tasked with rebuilding.

This is our test, and our opportunity.

Prepare wisely. Act boldly. Build the new world.